Bangladesh, in full, People’s Republic of Bangladesh, republic of southern Asia, in the northeastern portion of the Indian subcontinent, bordered on the west, north, and east by India, on the southeast by Myanmar (formerly known as Burma), and on the south by the Bay of Bengal. The area of the country is 147,570 sq km (56,977 sq mi).
Population, term referring to the total human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, country, or continent, at a given time. Population study as a discipline is known as demography. It is concerned with the size, composition, and distribution of populations; their patterns of change over time through births, deaths, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of such changes. Population studies yield knowledge important for planning, particularly by governments, in fields such as health, education, housing, social security, employment, and environmental preservation. Such studies also provide information needed to formulate government population policies, which seek to modify demographic trends in order to achieve economic and social objectives.
Population problem is one of the most talked about topics of the world now-a-days. In Bangladesh, it has been declared as number one national problem. Hence Bangladesh is called an over populated country. In fact, her present population has come to a stage of explosion.
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Past and Present Situation:
In the 1980s, Bangladesh faced no greater problem than population growth. Census data compiled in 1901 indicated 29 million in East Bengal, the region that became East Pakistan and eventually Bangladesh. By 1951, four years after partition from India, East Pakistan had 44 million people, a number that grew rapidly up to the first post independence census, taken in 1974, which reported the national population at 71 million. The 1981 census reported a population of 87 million and a 2.3 percent annual growth rate. Thus, in just 80 years, the population had tripled.
In July 1988, the population, by then the eighth largest in the world, stood at 109,963,551, and the average annual growth rate was 2.6 percent. According to official estimates, Bangladesh was expected to reach a population of more than 140 million by the year 2000.
Bangladesh’s population density provided further evidence of the problems the nation faced.
In 1901, an average of 216 persons inhabited one square kilometer. By 1951, that number had increased to 312 per square kilometer and, in 1988, reached 821. By the year 2000, population density was projected to exceed 1,000 persons per square kilometer.
The crude birth rate per 1,000 populations was 34.6 in 1981. This rate remained unchanged in 1985, following a 20-year trend of decline since 1961, when it had stood at 47 per 1,000. The rural birth rate was higher than birth rates in urban areas; in 1985, there were 36.3 births per 1,000 in the countryside versus 28 per 1,000 in urban areas. The crude death rate per 1,000 populations decreased from 40.7 in 1951 to 12 per 1,000 in 1985; the urban crude death rate was 8.3, and the rural crude death rate was 12.9. The infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births was 111.9 in1985, a distinct improvement from as recently as 1982, when the rate was 121.9. Life expectancy at birth estimated at 55.1 years in 1986. Men and women have very similar life expectancies at 55.4 and 55, respectively. With an average life expectancy of 58.8 years, urban dwellers in 1986 were likely to live longer than their rural counterparts (average life expectancy 54.8 years). The sex ratio of the population in 1981 was 106 males to 100 females.
In the late 1980s, about 82 percent of the population of Bangladesh (15.1 million households) resided in rural areas. With the exception of parts of Sylhet and Rangamati regions, where settlements occurred in nucleated or clustered patterns, the villages were scattered collections of homesteads surrounded by trees. Continuous strings of settlements along the roadside were also common in the southeastern part of the country.
Until the 1980s, Bangladesh was the most rural nation in South Asia. In 1931, only 27 out of every 1,000 persons were urban dwellers in what is now Bangladesh. In 1931, Bangladesh had fifty towns; by 1951, the country had eighty-nine towns, cities, and municipalities. During the 1980s, industrial development began to have a small effect on urbanization. The 1974 census had put the urban population of Bangladesh at 8.8 percent of the total; by 1988, that proportion had reached 18 percent and was projected to rise to 30 percent by the year 2000.
In 1981, only two cities, Dhaka and Chittagong, had more than 1 million residents. Seven other cities–Narayanganj, Khulna, Barisal, Saidpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, and Comilla–each had more than 100,000 people. Of all the expanding cities, Dhaka, the national capital and the principal seat of culture, had made the most gains in population, growing from 335,928 in 1951 to 3.4 million in 1981. In the same period, Chittagong had grown from 289,981 to 1.4 million. A majority of the other urban areas each had between 20,000 and 50,000 people. These relatively small towns had grown up in most cases as administrative centers and geographically suitable localities for inland transportation and commercial facilities. There was no particular concentration of towns in any part of the country. In fact, the only large cities close to each other were Dhaka and Narayanganj.
The populations of Bangladesh become a great problem. The present growth rate of population is 2.36 percent. This rate is very alarming and disturbing. If this growth rate continues, her population will be double by the end of the 25th century.
About 14 cross people live in Bangladesh, a country of 55.598 square miles. Our population is increasing by geometrical progression while agricultural production is increasing by arithmetical progression. The estimated population of Bangladesh (2003) is 138,448,210, making Bangladesh one of the ten most populous countries in the world. The overall density, 938 persons per sq km (2,430 persons per sq mi) in 2003, is much higher than that of other countries except for microstates such as Singapore. The distribution of the population is relatively even, except in the sparsely populated Chittagong Hill Tracts District and the almost much-uninhabited Sundarbans. Bangladesh supports a large rural population, with only 26 percent of the Bangladeshi people classified as urban in 2001. Most of the people are relatively young, nearly 60 percent being under the age of 25 and only 3 percent being 65 or older. Life expectancy at birth is 61 years.
If we think about it in deeper level, we can find many causes of over population. My next discussion will attempt to clear about the causes of Population Problem.
Causes of this problem
At the beginning of the population increase, many factors caused it to grow:
Industrial Revolution: With the industrial revolution came advances in agriculture and industry that gave way to individual families being able to afford more children. In addition, increases in our knowledge about nutrition and medicine helped us to have more healthy babies. When women take care of their bodies better, they are more fertile and therefore can have more children. With cures for fatal diseases including antibiotics and vaccines, these children are also able to live longer. These types of changes seem good for society, and they are in a sense that more people mean more development for the world’s societies. Until the middle of the 20th century, the population was not a major problem. People could move to other continents and later out of the cities to rural areas and space did not appear finite.
Technological Advancements: In addition, these technological advancements allowed us to care for all of these people as well. In essence, the population took care of itself. It was around 1950 when the population began to skyrocket.
Aging: Coming population declines in many developed countries will accompany very low proportions of youth and high proportions of older people in these societies. The resulting policy challenges of how to support increasing numbers of retirees while maintaining productive economies have already arrived in the Bangladesh as well as in many developing countries. For example, 23 percent of the population is less than 15 years old—a proportion much closer.
Difference between Growth& Death rate: The two elements that regulate population growth are birth and death rates. The question then is whether a slow down in population growth will be a result of a decrease in births or an increase in deaths. If the population continues to grow without bound, nature will take over and the death rate will rise to solve the problem. Unfortunately, this is not the most attractive solution for us. Instead, we would rather control the number of births in order to attack the source of this world problem and save the Earth from being over-capacitated.
Geographical Condition:Bangladesh has a limited geographical area. Therefore, she cannot provide the ever-growing population in such a small area. Besides this large population has become a burden on the available natural resources of the country.
Illiteracy: Illiteracy is the most important cause of population problem in Bangladesh. About 85% people live in villages. They are illiterate. They are not aware of their responsibilities. They cannot realize the importance of family planning. Therefore, they become parents of so many poor children. At this national progress is greatly hampered.
Gender: Improving literacy for women in developing countries has been a proven factor in lowering fertility and improving reproductive health. Improving the status of women at home, in the workplace, and in social and political life (as well as involving women and men equally in their reproductive decisions) also foreshadows improved health outcomes as well as overall economic growth. The gap between current realities and progress yet to be made is arguably larger here than in any other of PRB’s (Population Reference Bureau.) theme areas. The changes required are legal, economic, and cultural, but the resulting benefits cut broadly across most of our theme areas.
Religious influence: Some orthodox people opine that to adopt family planning measure is a sinful act. They think,
”God will feed everyone whom he has created.”
Being influenced by them, many people do not adopt family planning measures. As a result, population goes on increasing day by day.
Polygamy: The system of polygamy has worsened the population problem in our country. Sometimes a man takes two, three, or even more wives at the same tome. As a result, population increases and it creates serious consequences on the economy of the country.
Custom of Early Marriage: The custom of early marriage is still prevalent in the rural areas of Bangladesh. In early age’s marriage people unable to realize the value of birth controlling. Because they has the lack of knowledge. This custom has also a serious consequence and thus the population is in increasing at an alarming rate.
Female Education: As 50% of the total population of our country are of the female sex. However, in our country, women are not properly get chance to be educated. Without being an educated person, they cannot understand many important things in life as like population problem. In our country, women does not conscious for their conceive. They are not aware of this big problem.
Over population creates a lot of hazards and a number of problems. In addition, these problems act as a national problem of the country. All the major problems that we are facing recently in our country are the result of this population problem. Only one problem is giving birth to the other grievous problems. It is something like a gigantic fish in the sea, eating all the small and mini small creatures in the sea, and destroying the balance in numbers in keep harmony and discipline. Just like this gigantic fish, the population problem is the fish, which is destroying the normal balance and making different types of uncomfortable situation in the country among the people. Therefore, at first we have to observe that what types of problems this population problem is creating and bringing disorder to the society and normal life. We also have to find out that what impacts are there of this problem on our social life. There are several impacts on the society we can see it, we can feel it and we suffer for that:
The Food Problem : The Bengali poet Shukanto says,
“In the world of hunger the earth is prosaic,
The full moon is, as it were a loaf of baked bread.”
Really, no living being can survive without food in this universe. The food problem is a great problem in our country. There is shortest of food in Bangladesh and we have to procure food –stuffs from the foreign countries. At first, the population boom is the main cause. For the rapid growth of the population there are the increased number of people .That means, the main problem is food problem because, the more people the more food supply is needed . Our country has now population near four cores. In addition, this is really a huge population in a country like Bangladesh. Day by day, the demand of food is increasing because the people are increasing. And we have the increased number of children who only eat but cannot produce or go into economic activities . Therefore, we have the increased numbers of hungry little mouths to feed. Moreover ,on average we have only 0.1 hectare of cultivable land per head, which is not enough for us to provide the bare necessary quantity of food for our existence. The extra people cannot get extra food. Alternatively, we cannot provide extra food for them. For that reason, there is great food deficiency in the country. For providing food for extra people, we frequently take food from foreign countries. For that reason, our country needs to take financial help from the foreign country. Therefore, we can understand that over population creates a great problem like food crisis.
The placement problem: Over population means extra people in a certain area? Bangladesh is a very small land .The total area is about 56, 0000 square miles. Recently she has more than three crors of population .Bangladesh has more population that she can give accommodation to the people. Day by day, the number of people increasing but the land is not increasing. We have to give place to this huge population in this limited place. Therefore, this is a great problem, we are facing recently. Bangladesh is a fertile land. She needs to provide the cultivable lands also to feed a huge population .But the country has a limited land. So, now days we can see that many space for are selected for the construction of the buildings. A great number of cultivated lands are no more spheres and are not productive. The developed countries have now taken a trend to live in the big storied buildings. They are now make the sky scrappers and living in one of the flats, as there is no space in land so, now they are using the vertical spaces. For the huge population Bangladesh is planning to do like the developed countries. Recently it is being seen that most of the rural people is leaving village and they are more interested to stay in Dhaka city. For that reason, the population of Dhaka city has become a huge populated city. Because of that, many high rising building is being constructed now days to give placement to these extra people. The land of our Bangladesh is decreasing by over population, because of mismanagement, deforestation, overgrazing, and others. It can be shown by a pie chart-
The Dhaka city has become a city of high rising buildings. We cannot find any space for play, or we rarely get any space to walk in an open place. In addition, it has become impossible to get a spacious flat in the Dhaka city. The rooms are small. It is also seen that many people have to live in a small room together, which is really pathetic and uncomfortable. Not only in private flats but also in official rooms are also like suffocated rooms. In addition, those have no ability to provide any space for living; they spend their days on streets. And those have the ability to afford a spacious house , they stay in the luxurious and spacious flats which are extremely costly . Therefore, this is the picture of the capital city of Bangladesh. In addition, if we consider the condition of the villages, we will see that there are open places. However, not like before. The village is also getting compact and congested day by day. The people are increasing in number in the family. Therefore, they also need places to live. Therefore, day by day they are spoiling the cultivated lands by making the houses for them. They are also cutting down the forests to build the houses for the extra people. So, the land is just being engaged day by day. In addition, if the population rate increases like this then there will be no space for even stand .We can now easily understand that over population is creating so bad impact.
Migration and urbanization: Brain drain, globalization, coastal crowding, xenophobia and discrimination, dying rural towns: One or several of these manifestations of migration and urbanization permeate life in every country on earth and connect them one with the others as never before. Economic globalization is driving massive international movements of labor, jobs, and income, raising living standards of many in the developing world but threatening the livelihood of others. Developing countries are losing skilled personnel—notably in the health professions—to Europe and North America. The migrants and receiving countries benefit, but the home countries are left with labor shortages. These and other pressures will soon arise between developing countries as neighboring societies such as Chad and the CentralAfricaRepublic experience diverging fertility and population trends. Meanwhile, the proportion of the world’s people living in urban areas will exceed 50 percent in 2005.
Educational problem: Over Population causes a great problem in education. The country is having a huge population and a huge responsibility to make them educated. For these extra people the country needs more educational institutions to provide proper education. However, in our country there are not enough educational institutions according to the number of people. If the number student is increased in a classroom then class will not be so effective and educative. In the schools of our country are now packed with a huge number of student. There is not enough number of efficient teachers. It is seen recently in the country that in good schools there is hard competition for admission. For example, only for 50 sits, 50 thousands of students are competing. In the higher education level, the competition increases. In the government universities, we can also see the same picture. Here many brilliant students fail to get in the well-known universities. That means, the country is not able to provide the best education for all students because of the lacking of enough government universities. Again, in most of the classes there are a huge number of students. Therefore, student cannot get full the utility of the class. The students cannot do enough communication with the class. Because of that, the students rarely get proper environment to study and to be enlightened. As the competition is too high, the students get puzzled and frustrated. Then they decide to depend on unfair things in the exam hall. Gradually the huge portion of students of this country passes and gets degree by copying. Finally, a huge portion of people remains empty intellectually. Therefore, this is a great loss for the country. Again, another point is the half of the population of the country is women. In addition, there is no proper facility for female education. Because of that, the half of the population is uneducated. It is seen that, if there is several children in a family, the parents send only their boys to schools for education but not girls. Even now, at this moment, a major portion of females is not getting any education because of shortage of educational institutions. The population rate is so high that the country is simply unable to provide proper education for all people of the country. Where as education is one of the basic elements of human right. Therefore, this has become a major problem of the country only because of over population.
Economical problem: Over population is one of the reasons for which the country goes through a big financial crisis. The more people the more money is needed to run the country. There is a great need for providing every important thing for the people. The country must have the financial solvency to maintain the all expenses. For example, in a family, as much as the family members are there, the maintenance cost also differs according to the number of the members. There is a minimum financial matter for each member of the family. Just like that, a country needs that financial solvency. It is seen that the earning rate per head of this country is day-by-day decreasing. The earning rate per head was like just about 210 us dollar. Now it has been low because the people are increasing but the earning is not increasing .The most people do not do any work. They are destroying the capitals in the different places. The major portion of the population is not engaged in any work. So, as a result of that they are not producing or earning any thing rather they remain idle . However, they are dependent on their parents earning. Therefore, we can see that over population means extra money. However, there is no source of extra income. Therefore, the country is facing a tremendous pressure of financial need. That is why Bangladesh cannot run without the financial help of foreign countries. The country takes financial help only because she has not that ability to maintain the country as she has a huge population now. Therefore, we can understand that over population only creates problems after problems.
Proper medication problem: A poor country like Bangladesh, having a huge population, cannot provide the proper Medicare. This is impossible to give the best medication to this huge population. The every people of the country have a right to get proper medication in sufferings different types of diseases. In our country, we can see that there are medical centers but not according to the number of people. In the rural areas, there are very few medical centers and the quality of medication is too low. There are no efficient doctors because; the students who study medical science and become doctors with a good degree, most of them do not continue practice in Bangladesh. Finally, the rest medium quality doctors stay in the country for the over population. Even this is also seen that many people suffer a lot because of lack of medicine and care. The medicine is not sufficient comparing to this huge population .Even in many remote areas there is no hospitals, doctors and medical centers. Therefore, they have to suffer a lot in diseases. The population is so high in Bangladesh that it is hardly possible to provide proper medical service to every people. If the population were range able then it would be possible to give every one of this country the proper medical services.
The Unemployment problem: The one of the most important effect of over population is unemployment problem. Every year a huge amount of students, pass from the educational institutions. They start to find out jobs according to their academic qualifications. However, as the population is high, the competition is very hard. Sometimes it is seen that for only one sit, thousands of people are applying. The job fields are few. The scopes of a job are getting narrower day by day. The students finish education with the hope of getting a job But unfortunately this is never happened. The hope becomes frustrations. A huge number of population is now just unemployed. They are just having a terrible time. They have education, they have competency but they have no earnings. They have to depend on their parents or they do not have anything to do. Therefore, huge portions of this over population remain useless and unproductive. The competent people are many but job fields are limited. For that reason, we can see that the major portion of people is disengaged with any sort of works. Because of that, the people become weaker in mentality or they become very much crazy for money. Finally, they engage themselves in the crimes. They try to become rich within very short time. In addition, some of them want to at least lead their life hand to mouth, but they feel that they do not have any jobs to do in fair way. Therefore, they choose the unfair way to earn money. We can see that over population is a great curse for one nation. It cripples the nation.
The moral degradation: The over population has an impact on human mind. As the total atmosphere is very uncomfortable, the mind of the people also feels unrest at times. They feel frustrated, dejected and hopeless. They think that they will loose the game of life as the life becomes competitive. It is a hard thing to maintain life in an expensive society. Gradually we see that, people loose faith in morality. They become self-centered, selfish, and liar. People commit crimes. Therefore, we easily understand that the mind or mentality of the people has been changed because of over population. Therefore, we n say that over population encourages false spirit of an individual, which finally, damages the morality in human being. This can be called one of the major problems of society caused by over population.
Reproductive health and fertility: More than one-half million women still die every year from pregnancy-related causes. Almost one-half the world’s women—including 85 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and 28 percent in the United States—still do not use modern contraception. The news on HIV is equally gloomy: Nearly 20 million women worldwide now have HIV, and rates of HIV infection among African women ages 15-19 are five to six times higher than infection rates for their male counterparts. AIDS is also the leading cause of death among African American women ages 25-34. Investments in family planning and reproductive health must continue—reaching the women and couples that are often the hardest to reach—if progress on these issues is to continue.
Children and families: Falling infant and child mortality rates nearly worldwide were a triumph of 20th century science, public health, and economic development. However, adequate investment and policy attention to these crucial populations in both the United States and internationally is still lacking. For instance, American children experience teen death rates as high as 236 per 100,000 in the District of Columbia. In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS has left 14 million children orphaned. And while falling fertility in developing countries now presents a window of opportunity to invest more in the health, nutrition, and schooling of each child—what demographers call the “demographic dividend”—few national governments are poised to take advantage of this opportunity.
The Environment Problem: Nearly everyone agreed that population growth has a negative effect on the environment. The basic elements of environment are air, water, soil etc. Everything that is included in the nature is a great part of environment. Over population damaging the natural processes of all natural elements. In addition, day-by-day people are getting a polluted environment. The more people are born, the more cars, buses, trucks, factories, miles, machines, and other things are invented day by day. The buses, trucks and other vehicles are creating smokes and ashes. The mills and factories are creating the poisonous smoke. As the population has been increased, the need of communication and industrialization also has been increased at a great scale. Because of that, these extra mills and factories, buses and trucks are spoiling the air. These smoke providing poisons to the air. As a result, the people are becoming sick day by day. The people are in hailing the poisonous air. On the other hand, water is one of the most important and essential matter for human being. Man cannot live without water. This water is also polluted. To provide more there are more garments are buildup, many factories, many industries and many more things are building up. In addition, they leave waste materials to the ponds, rivers. In addition, the chemical wastes are poisoning the water. For growing more foods to feed the extra people, people are using chemicals, medicines and other artificial product in the cultivated lands. To kill the insects people use many types of poisons. Because of that the soil are loosing its utility and fertility. The sugar level of the soil is increasing. That means the spoil is also polluted. If the basic elements are damaged and polluted then the nature is also damaged and polluted .The natural process is being disturbed. The weather is also becoming hotter day by day because of the disturbance of the natural process. At the end the green house effect occurs. So, we can see, how the over population creates the environmental damages and making the country an unable and unfit place to live in. Over population is creating an environment of poisons only.
Agricultural Problem: Around 70 percent of the world’s poor rely on the land for income and subsistence. However, increasingly, poor rural families worldwide are likely to live in ecologically fragile zones; support themselves with subsistence slash-and-burn agriculture; and use products from increasingly stressed forests as fuel, fodder, and building materials. Abject poverty can push rural residents to destroy the very resources they rely on for their livelihoods, and can leave them unable to meet basic human needs when the prices of environmental goods such as water, land, or marine life increase. Meanwhile, improving incomes and living standards are driving increasing global demand for consumer goods—but this development is also fueling deforestation and environmental degradation. In addition, demographic factors increasingly contribute to environmental problems in the developed world as well, from densely populated coasts that are vulnerable to storms to low water tables in the American Southwest. In all these settings, evidence-based public policy can make a marked difference.
Poverty and inequality: Poverty and inequality are at the heart of poor health, high mortality, and lack of access to education—and these factors themselves perpetuate and deepen individual poverty and national and global inequality. In the least developed countries, health spending is about $11 per person a year—well short of the World Health Organization’s recommended $30 per person needed to cover essential health care. People in poverty also tend to have reduced access to modern contraception, to live in areas of environmental degradation, and to migrate because of the “push” of survival rather than the “pull” of opportunity. In the United States, child poverty rates that vary from 7 percent to 26 percent across the states demonstrate that even some highly industrialized societies have not solved this issue.
We know that if there is a problem there is a solution too. Population problem is the effect of long process. The population is a great problem of our country. Therefore, we need find out the solutions to solve these problems. All classes of people should come forward with a view to uprooting this problem. There can be certain solutions that are given below:
Providing Education: One of the main solutions is education. It is said that education is the light of life. Only education can solve the half of this problem. If a person is educated, he/she will understand the curse and dangerous effect of the population growth. Everyone of the country must go to schools. Every women of the country should be educated up to at least class 5. By educating the people, this problem can be solved .If, the people are educated; they will understand the importance of having small family. By education, they will know the world, science technology, and many more things. The superstition regarding child will be no more in their mind. Education will enlighten them for the better life. Female education should be a mandatory for all girls of the country. The government should give much more emphasis on education sectors. In addition, government should include the sex topics in the text. So that the student can have a view to know the real matter of over population. In addition, the students will be brought up with the proper knowledge of sexual matters. In addition, gradually they will be careful of the problem.
Raising awareness: One of the most important solutions can be the raising of awareness among people. The people should know the exact situation of the present situation in Bangladesh. In addition, they should know about their duties and responsibilities towards the nation to solve the problem. The people should get aware of the fact that the country has al ready a huge problem .So, the people has a great part to do. In addition, for that reason, they must be raise awareness in their mind for protecting the country from the over population.
Family planning: The most important solution is the family planning of population problem in Bangladesh. The increase of population must be controlled through family planning department. Family planning workers should visit every nook and corner of the village and convey the illiterate people of the importance of family planning. The rural people do not know about the family planning. Even they do not know how to control the birth of child. They do not know the proper use of condom and other things. There will be a few problems with this. One is the cost of making the contraceptives available. This could be taken care of, again, by working together. If richer countries with less of a population problem could donate to the poor countries with more of a problem, then the costs would be covered. Therefore, it is very important to make them knowledgeable about the sex and family planning.
Stopping polygamy: Polygamy should be stopped in the society. There must be a need to setup a rule by government. The rule must be like this that one person cannot marry more than once. The traditions of some aristocratic families should be stopped. In addition, if any one marries twice in life, the person should get punishment for that. Legal action should be taken against polygamy. It can be controlled through Muslim marriage act of 1861.
Stopping Early Marriage: The custom of early marriage should be banded. Legal action should be taken against the early marriages. There should be a system that a man shall not allow to marry before his affairs the age of twenty-five.
Changing of Religious Concepts: There are many orthodox people in the country. They have many superstitions according to religion about birth controlling. The opinion of these orthodox people should be changed. They have to think practically. They should realize their condition of the family. In addition, should look on the actual situation of Bangladesh.
Media and Advertisements: Media and advertisement has a great role of preventing over population.Differnt types of dramas, cinemas, Short films can show the real picture of over population in the country. In addition, there can be important message regarding child taking and family planning. By this, the national awareness can be raised among people and people can be more benefited .The people will be gradually more interested in making a small family rather than making a huge family. Therefore, we can see that media has a great role to control over population and save the country. Again, there must be some advertisements regarding short family and other important topics on the problem of population. The government should take measure to stop over population by providing posters, leaflets and notices on the walls of the streets ,so that the mass people can read it carefully and can concentrate on the topic.
Government Rules: The government should look on the matter more carefully. The government should take some important and mandatory steps to stop over population. The law of the country should be re organized according to the present situation of the country. The strict rules should be taken and mandatory principles should be practiced in order to protect the country from the curse of over population. Government should maintain strict rules on taking only two children (girl and boy). If the rules are set up and laws are active, the people will not be that much crazy that they will not follow the government rules. Therefore, we can see that the government is the only authority to give the command the people. Only government can solve the total problem and handle the present situation of the country. Therefore, we can easily understand that government should be more careful regarding solving the over population.
Female Education:Female education should be one of the moat important preconditions of controlling over population. Without proper education of women, a family can never get the necessary light of education. The childhood of every human being depends on his or her mother. In addition, educated and responsible one in manhood can only be possible if she is nourished under the dream of a truly educated mother. An educated mother can lend her hand to expand the income of a family also. If a mother is educated properly then she can take care of herself and can understand the value of birth controlling.
In any event, non-coercive approaches to population reduction emphasizing improving standards of living, economic security, education, rights of women, and health care generally, not only promise reductions of growth rate to the 2.0 fertility level that marks no growth, but promise this in a time period comparable to or better than what can be accomplished with coercion, assuming the latter would in fact work at all without parallel social progress. And, finally, whereas the developmental approach to stabilizing population dovetails nicely with concerns for justice, equity, an end to patriarchy, etc., the coercive approach in practice leads almost inexorably to misogynist, racist, and colonialist formulations and practices, even against the protests of its more humane and thoughtful advocates.
So, is there any doubt about what the position of leftists ought to be, however many nuances might still be open to reasonable debate? The notion that we ought to set aside development for family planning of any type, especially coercive policies, is, objectively, whatever the motives of its proponents, reactionary. For where this type of thinking leads, and by way of conclusion, we can do no better than to follow Alex Cockburn’s lead (from the Nation, July 25) and quote the new star of the population-crisis school of thought, Garrett Hardin, from his 1949 textbook, Biology: Its Human Implications. While not all ecologically and demographically schooled people urging drastic population policies are as venal as Hardin, I do think that his views represent a kind of natural destination of this type of advocacy. He writes, as just one of many quotes that make the point: “Studies indicate that as long as our present social organization [democracy] continues, there will be a slow but continuous downward trend in the average intelligence–[while] there seems to be little danger of society’s being deprived of something valuable by the sterilization of all feeble-minded individuals–more spectacular results could be obtained by preventing the breeding of numerous members of the sub-normal classes higher than the feeble-minded.”
The population of Bangladesh is alarming. The impact of over population is so grievous and pathetic that there is no way other than solving the problem instantly. The standard of living, political stability, and cultural values are degrading day by day. The state of affairs cannot be allowed to continue. On the other hand, we should find out the ways and means to utilize the existing population and on the other hand, we should change the rapid growth of population.
Article written by : Asad Saimon
Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades
Peter Kim Streatfield and Zunaid Ahsan Karar
Health and Demographic Surveillance Unit, Public Health Sciences Division, ICDDR, B, GPO Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Correspondence and reprint requests should be addressed to: Dr. Peter Kim Streatfield, Head, Health and Demographic Surveillance Unit and, Head, Population Programme, Public Health Sciences Division, ICDDR, B, GPO Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh, Email: gro.brddci@smik
Author information ►Copyright and License information ►
Copyright © INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DIARRHOEAL DISEASE RESEARCH, BANGLADESH
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
J Health Popul Nutr. 2008 Sep; 26(3): 261–272.
This article has been cited by other articles in PMC.
Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other ‘mega’ country (>100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption.
Key words: Ageing, Age factor, Child survival, Climate change, Family planning, Fertility, Population growth, Urbanization, Bangladesh
CURRENT POPULATION SITUATION AND FUTURE GROWTH
The Bangladesh population in mid-2007 was around 147 million. The precise figure depends on assumptions about rates of growth since the adjusted census figure of 129,247,233 for 22 January 2001. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) indicates an average rate of natural increase of 1.5% annually since the census. However, these figures from the BBS are almost certainly under-estimates of crude birth rate (CBR) (20-21/1,000) and crude death rate (CDR) (5-6/1,000). The BBS rates would project a population of just over 141 million whereas the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) rate of natural growth of 1.9% per annum is more likely—based on assumed CBR of 27/1,000 and CDR of 8/1,000, resulting in a projected population of 147 million.
A more important question is what the future popu- lation growth will be. Until the United Nations Population Division (UN PD) released the 2004 revision of population projections for all the countries of the world, there was a general agreement that Bangladesh would reach 218 million by 2050 and finally stabilize at around 260 million in mid-next century (1). However, the 2004 revision by the UN PD proposes a pessimistic upgrading of the 2050 figure to 243 million as a consequence of the decade-long fertility plateau (1993–2002). This seems excessively high. The PRB estimate is 231 million for mid-century, which is more realistic, although a new set of Bangladesh population projections should be produced, taking into account the recent demographic events. Whatever the details, it can be seen in Figure 1 that Bangladesh is only halfway along the S-curve of the ‘demographic transition’ from a historically-stable population size of around 25 million to a final size of 10-fold larger.
Population of Bangladesh: 10-fold growth in two centuries
The UN projection would require an average annual growth rate of 1.29% from today to 2050. As the CDR will not fall below 8/1,000, the CBR would have to remain, on average, at least 21/1,000 [The population growth rate (natural increase, not including international migration) is the difference between CBR and CDR, expressed as a percentage, not per 1,000]. This is unlikely as even if the TFR remains at a plateau at replacement level through 2050, the population-ageing process will bring the CBR down below 20 within a decade or so. Simultaneously, the population-ageing process will start to push the CDR beyond 8/1,000 from around 2020, which will further reduce the population growth rate.
The density of the Bangladesh population is much higher than any other mega country.
In 2007, Bangladesh was only halfway up the population growth curve and will reach more than 250 million later this century.
Most of the increased population will be urban, and much of Bangladesh will essentially become a city state.
The year that Bangladesh reaches replacement fertility is not as critical lowering fertility to less than replacement. Other Asian countries have accomplished this.
The number of children born each year is now stabilized at slightly less than 4 million.
Age of marriage has not increased in Bangladesh as it has in other Asian countries.
The elderly (>60 years) will grow in population from 7 to 65 million this century, and this will make many demands and different demands on the health system.
There has been a major reduction in overall numbers of child deaths over the last three decades. Part of this reduction is due to reduced fertility, and part is due to child-survival interventions.
It is worth noting that the exact year in which replacement fertility is achieved is not of great importance. What is potentially of much greater importance is whether or not fertility can be brought below replacement fertility. For example, if fertility stops declining on attaining replacement level, the final population will continue to increase for another century and add at least 100 million. However, if fertility declined through replacement (i.e. TFR around 2.2) to the current level of Thailand (TFR around 1.8), the final population could stop growing at 205-210 million, some 50-55 million lower than otherwise will be the case.
Age structure and population momentum
A demographic change that has major implications is the rapid fertility decline of the 1980s. The first impact has been to slow population growth, but it has resulted in a gradual change in age structure. An encouraging feature of the change to, or ‘ageing’ of the age structure, is the fact that the number of children and young people aged less then 15 years—now at 47 million—will never increase. Throughout this century, that number will remain stable, which should assist planners in building an education system.
A related feature of this age structure is that, with current low mortality rates, many of those 47 million young people will survive and pass through the reproductive years and contribute to the continuing population growth, even if replacement fertility level is attained within a decade [Every 5-year delay in achieving replacement fertility adds 3% to the population projection]. To illustrate the significance of this, there are currently about 45 million young women in the reproductive ages (15-49 years). By mid-century, this number will have increased to 75 million, as over 90% of young people who survive to age 15 years will survive to age 50 years.
Determinants of future population growth
Can changes in any other determinants of population growth play an important role in what future population growth will be in Bangladesh? The major components include fertility, mortality, and migration.
Following a dramatic and precipitous decline in the 1980s from almost seven children per woman (late 1970s) to just over three children per woman (early 1990s), fertility has been stagnant for a decade. Demographers found it difficult to predict when a decline would restart. The usual indicators of future behaviour, such as reported ideal family size and unwanted fertility, did not indicate a very substantial unmet need for fertility control; nor did the gradual decrease in gender preference, which still suggested a desire for at least one boy and one girl, which tends to result in an average fertility (TFR) of around three children, even if 70% of parents say that they only want one of each.
The only indication of a coming restart of fertility decline was the continuing fall through the 1990s in the less widely-used parity progression ratios. Indeed, the Demography and Health Survey (DHS) 2004 showed a minor drop in TFR to 3.0, which was of borderline significance [The TFR from BDHS 1999/2000 was 3.308 (3.159-3.457), and from BDHS 2004, it was 3.028 (2.894-3.161), meaning the 95% confidence interval barely touched at 3.16]. The latest DHS, in 2007, has confirmed the resumption of the decline (Fig. 2), with a further fall to 2.7, still half a child above replacement fertility. This author suspects that fertility will continue to fall gradually to a TFR around 2.5, then possibly a plateau again for some time, as some other countries have seen. There is still reason to be hopeful that replacement fertility will be achieved by 2015, as was the target for the 1994 World Bank population projections, although five years later than the 1996 UN PD projections.
Trends in fertility, Bangladesh, 1980–2007
A puzzling feature of the fertility plateau was the fact that contraceptive prevalence rates (CPRs) continued to rise steadily throughout the 1990s, from 44.6% (1993/1994) to a peak of 58.1% in 2004, followed by a slight fall to 55.8% in 2007, due to a fall in traditional methods. Experience from other countries suggests that such a rise in the CPR would produce a concurrent decline in fertility. Recent studies have not satisfactorily explained this paradox. An examination of the range of fertility determinants indicates that potentially important factors, such as delayed age at marriage, do not appear to have played a counter-balancing role in the Bangladesh case; nor have less powerful factors, such as postpartum amenorrhoea linked to breastfeeding, changed in any significant way. There has been a gradual shift in the use of permanent and long-term contraception towards a greater dependence on temporary methods, but this is mainly among older fertile women who are not contribu- ting much to overall childbearing rates. One possible factor may be that adoption of modern contraception has gradually been substituting for reliance on induced abortion. This pattern, seen in Matlab (2,3), appears to require quite high levels of CPR before a substitution begins to take place. This may well be context-specific and presumably depends on the level of fertility and the speed of the decline.
Are new indicators needed to monitor child survival
Traditional measures of child mortality use, as their denominator, the population ‘at risk’, that is the numbers of children born. Defining the ‘at-risk’ population is central to epidemiological concepts; however, it also assumes that live infants within the cohort are uniformly at risk. Many confounders, such as age of parents, socioeconomic status, parity, and education of parents, alter this risk and, thus, affect the IMR. Since the acceptance of fami-ly-planning methods may be highly dependent on these same factors, the use of the IMR when used as a single indicator is not able to assess the interaction of these factors. There are other indicators of infant mortality, termed fertility-adjusted infant mortality ratio (FIMR), age-specific, fertility-adjusted IMR (AFIMR), and total infant mortality ratio (TIMR) which are more sensitive to rapid demographic changes and which take into account the combined effects of changes in both fertility and infant mortality rates on overall infant mortality in an entire region (4). These new indicators appear to better measure the effects of an integrated health programme. For the Matlab field area, the reduction in the numbers of infant deaths, as reflected by these indicators, is much greater than indicated by the IMR. Also, the new indicators conceptualize the mother-infant pair as an appropriate unit with which to monitor mortality and may be used for guiding allocation of resources intended to lower infant mortality and may better reflect the perception in infant mortality status in the community.
Age at marriage
In a country undergoing a major fertility transition, it is usual to see a gradual delay in age at marriage for young women. Bangladesh is unusual in that the traditional pattern of very early marriage and high fertility has been transformed with virtually no evidence of marriage being delayed. One important indicator of early marriage is the proportion of teenage women (aged 15-19 years) currently married. Bangladesh has, until recently, maintained one of the highest proportions—close to half—of teenage marriage in the world, matched only with a few West African countries.
What is surprising about this unchanging early-marriage trend is that substantial investments have been made in the past decade to increase access by girls to primary and secondary education. Free primary schooling for girls to grade 12 (with plans to extend it to higher level) and a national female secondary school stipend scheme (FSSSS) which provides financial support to parents who keep their daughters in high school as long as possible, with the provision that the girl does not marry [There are other eligibility criteria, such as maintaining a minimum pass rate (45% or so)]. There is a draft policy proposing to extend this scheme to girls from poor families in urban areas. Thus far, there is little evidence of these educational inputs translating into delayed marriage, as the historical experience from other countries would predict.
It is probably safe to predict that continued investments in female education will result in delays in early marriage in the near future—at least among some groups. This, in turn, will contribute to further fertility decline. What is less certain about mass education schemes, such as the FSSSS, is whether girls from poor families, who now achieve high levels of education through such schemes, will behave similarly to girls who historically had high education and tended to come from economically well-off families with different knowledge, experience, and values. There easily could be a delay in observing later marriage among poor families.
Another less-widely discussed aspect of the ‘ageing’ of the population is the impending massive growth of the elderly sector, aged 60 years and over, during this century. Typical of most developing countries, the elderly of Bangladesh currently constitute only about one in 20 of the population. However, during this century, the current seven million will grow to 65 million, by then accounting for some 26% of the total population (Fig. 3). This ‘ageing’ shift has major implications for health as more than half of all deaths occur in this age range.
Bangladesh population (millions) in 21st century
It is partly this ageing trend that is triggering the shift from infectious to non-infectious diseases as the major causes of death. It is anticipated that, by 2010, non-communicable diseases will account for 59% of all deaths, up from 40% in 1990. The proportion due to communicable diseases will drop from 51% to 30% over the same period. The remainder is due to injuries, which will increase a little, mainly as a result of more road accidents.
It can safely be assumed that, during this century, a health service system, probably incorporating some form of health insurance, will evolve in response to these new demands. Is this a safe assumption? Who is going to pay for these services, which will inevitably be much more expensive than existing services for most infectious diseases? While the elderly population grows at a rapid rate (2.2% per annum), the working-age population will grow much more slowly, only 0.5% per annum. The effect of this will be that the present dependency ratio will fall precipitously from 11 workers per one elderly person to three workers by 2050 and to two workers by 2100—similar to current Western ratios. Even assuming an effective taxation system in place, the burden on workers to pay for health services will be greatly increased. In the next section, the implications of ageing for health services will be briefly discussed.
Implications of population growth and ageing for health systems
There will be two ways in which population growth impacts patterns of disease and the need for health services. One is simply the increase in numbers, around 38% over the coming three decades. The other is the impact of the changing age structure. A simple exercise will illustrate these two effects. Applying the WHO GBD age-specific prevalence rates for diabetes for South Asia to the growing Bangladesh population, then applying costs per case of treatment (at current retail prices and assuming all cases receive complete treatment), suggest that the number of cases will rise from 2.7 million in 2005 to 7.1 million in 2035. The implied costs will rise from US$ 154 million to US$ 405 million (@US$ 57 per case). This is a 162% increase in health costs, of which only one-quarter is due to growth in overall numbers, plus three-quarters due to ‘ageing’ of the population.
The impact of ageing is not limited to non-communicable diseases, but infectious diseases that afflict adults, such as tuberculosis (TB), are also important. Using the same approach, the costs of complete TB treatment for all cases would rise by 76% from US$ 33.7 million to US$ 59.6 million, of which half the impact would be due to the increase in numbers of population and half due to the changing age structure.
The impact of ageing is much greater with diabetes than TB because the age-specific rates rise much more steeply with diabetes, and it is not presently a curable disease, so the duration needed for management is much longer.
While the rapidly-rising number of cases of both non-communicable and communicable diseases of adults has major cost implications for the health system, it also suggests that issues relating to skill balances and medical school curriculum need to take account of the changing demands.
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION AND URBANIZATION
Not only are the total population figures important, their distribution between urban and rural areas is also critical. Overall growth may continue through the present century, but the rural population will stop growing by 2025, adding ‘only’ another 30 million to the current 108 million. The urban population, however, will absorb the additional 70 million national population growth, so the current urban population of 34 million will blow out to over 100 million, possibly during this century. This frightening growth will be driven predominantly by rural-urban migration, with a small component of natural increase.
How can urban populations grow at this rate, tripling in size within this century? The current rate of growth of the urban areas within the six metropolitan areas is around 3.5% per annum. The BBS quotes a rate of natural increase for urban Bangladesh of about 1.3% per annum. If this estimate is correct, the difference (2.2% per annum) must come from rural-urban migration. This gives a doubling time of 20 years [The doubling time is estimated by dividing the annual growth rate in percentage into 69.3, or 70. Populations grow exponentially, and the natural log of 2 is 0.693], or a tripling time is about 31 years. So, a doubling is probable by mid-century at the current growth rate. More important even than the overall urban growth rate is that the slum populations within the urban areas are growing at double the average urban rate—around 7% per annum. For example, in Dhaka, more than one-third (37.4%) of the 9,136,182 population in the metropolitan area currently live in slums. Nationwide, that proportion is similar, at 35.2%, although in other divisions the proportions are lower (Khulna City Corporation=19.5%). The growth rate for urban Dhaka indicates that, in absolute terms, it is growing at around 320,000 persons per annum in the metropolitan area, of which three-quarters are added to the slum population. This proportion is likely to be similar elsewhere, although the total numbers will, of course, be smaller than in Dhaka.
Figure 4, showing Bangladesh with a current population density of 2,600 per sq mile, supports the argument that Bangladesh is a special case in that its economy is very much based on agriculture, but its exceptional population density places it at great risk of reaching saturation in terms of agricultural production and capacity to absorb further population increases into the rural labour force [To place the Bangladesh population density in perspective, if the entire world population was squeezed into the USA, the density would be 1,740, or into Australia, the density would be 2,170 per sq mile; The population density of Bangladesh will rise from 2,700 to 4,500 per sq mile by 2050].
‘Mega’ countries with population of >100 million
There is a slightly encouraging sign that urban growth appears to be slowing in recent years. While there is little evidence, this is possibly linked to the rapidly-expanding microcredit facilities in rural areas, and consequent employment and income-generation taking some pressure off the poor to move to the cities in search of work.
Urban health conditions and challenges
The health of the urban poor or slum dwellers is primarily due to crowding and lack of access to basic services, such as water and sanitation. Consequences of these living conditions include stress due to crowding, insecurity due to lack of housing and land tenure, various types of illegal or criminal activities, including violence, drug-use, prostitution, etc.
If conditions are so bad, why do people move to these areas? Presumably because there are better (perceived) chances to find cash from employment.
Population density and crowding
Rural Bangladesh has a relatively high population density of 755 per sq km This is sparse compared to the urban population densities from the latest slum-mapping (5), which are 30 times higher, averaging 23,378 nationwide (7,152 in Barisal City Corporation to 29,857 in Dhaka metropolitan). The slums, however, at 205,415 persons per sq km, are almost 300 times more densely populated than the rural averages. Figure Fig. 5 illustrates the point that most slum housing is single-story, not high-rise and, thus, very crowded. Chittagong is the highest at 255,100 persons per sq km. With modal (most common) values of 4-5 persons per room and the average house-size of 103 sq ft, there can be little doubt that crowding is a genuine issue.
Since slums tend to be in low-lying areas, where the better-off do not want to live, they are subject to flooding (26.5% fully flooded, 27.4% partly flooded, 46.1% flood-free), with over half of the area being poorly drained (52.7%, plus 37.0% moderately drained). More than half (55.7%) have no fixed place for the disposal of garbage. More than half (52.8%) of the population use a pit latrine for sanitation, and in many households, these must be shared—in one in eight slums, one latrine was shared, on average, by 11 or more families.
What are the prospects for this situation with future rapid urban growth? Water is likely to be a limiting factor. At present, the people of Dhaka city need 2.1 billion litre of water a day (L/day). Dhaka WASA provides 1.45 billion L/day, mostly from groundwater through its 400 deep tubewells, and the remainder is from the Shitalakshya River, which is becoming increasingly polluted. Many additional deep tubewells are serving the mushrooming numbers of high-rise buildings, and the overall impact of extraction of this underground water at a rate exceeding the capacity to recharge the aquifer is a drawdown of the Dhaka water table at an unsustainable rate. The water table is presently over 60 metres below the surface [One positive aspect of this low water table is that it is below the level of arsenic contamination of the shallow aquifer, down to 30 metres], some 20 metres lower than eight years ago, and 35 metres lower than in the mid-1970s. Surface water should be a viable alternative [There is a proposal to import relatively clean surface water from areas to the south-west of Dhaka city, as the Shitalakshya river has reached its extraction limit due to pollution and siltation]. However, surface water is contaminated by industrial wastes (mostly toxic chemical dyes, heavy metals, etc.) and domestic wastes due to the inadequate sewerage system.
Only Chittagong and Dhaka are the two cities with any piped, water-based sewerage system, but it is very old and poorly maintained. Only 30% of city residents live in areas served by the sewerage system, another 30% have septic tanks, and the rest lack even basic sanitation, further exacerbating the pollution of surface water.
While the recommended allowance of water is around 200 L/day per person (for all purposes), many slum-dwellers manage with less than 10 L/day. With the Dhaka population increasing by over 300,000 persons each year, theoretically needing six million additional litre per day, the numbers limited to this inadequate amount or less, will undoubtedly increase, unless something drastic is done.
The health implications must be clear, where populations are growing, water is becoming increasingly scarce, and sanitation is poor and not improving, waterborne diseases are very likely to become a serious problem again.
In addition, air-borne diseases, such as influenza, pneumonia, and TB, which tend to be exacerbated by crowding, are obviously also likely to increase under these pressured conditions.
CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE BANGLADESH POPULATION
There can be no doubt that the continued growth of the large population of Bangladesh has major implications in the future development of the country. Questions that are not often asked are what population can Bangladesh support; what strategies might be used for minimizing the negative impact of future population growth; and what changes to population distribution and the economy will be needed.
There are several issues that throw light on this. What is the capacity of agriculture to generate employment and absorb the expanding population into gainful employment? What is the capacity of agriculture to feed the growing population?
Bangladesh has 8.774 million hectares of cultivable land, of which 88% is cultivated, so there is a limi-ted scope to expand the cultivated area. Intensive double (59%) and triple (22%) cropping increases the effective crop production by 150%. Has Bangladesh reached the limits of agriculture? This may depend in the short term more than anything else on the availability of water [In the longer-term, the shift to genetically-engineered or modified crops might play a role in Bangladesh, just as the introduction of high-yielding rice varieties did in the 1970s and 1980s].
Bangladesh resides in a water paradox in that it receives massive volumes of water both from transboundary rivers and from monsoon rains (average 2.3 metres annually), but water shortages are common. Among the 57 transboundary rivers are the Ganges [The Ganges carries so much water into Bangladesh that the Paksey bridge near the Indian border needs the deepest pylons in the world—91 metres below the riverbed], the Brahmaputra, and the Megna, with peak discharges among the highest in the world according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (6). Between these and other minor rivers, some 1,100 km3 of water enters Bangladesh annually, mostly during the monsoon (June-October). To put this in perspective, it is equivalent to covering the entire country in water to a depth of 7.5 metres.
How can there be water shortages? There are two reasons. The first is that, across the 230 rivers, dams capture less than 2% of internal renewable water resources. Irrigation is used on only half the potentially-irrigable land area, and major canals cover less than 10% of the total irrigated area. The remaining area uses minor irrigation systems, with pumps for groundwater, shallow and deep wells of various kinds. However, a concern is that “there has been a general reduction in the area irrigated by wells as a consequence of aquifer drawdown, and there has been an increase in salinity, particularly along the coastal areas in the southwest of the country” (6).
The second reason is that, in the dry season, the groundwater reserve amounts to less than 2% of total renewable water resources, yet due to lack of dams and canals, this forms a major source of irrigation water. When irrigation is most needed, farmers suffer water shortages due to erratic power supply, which limits their capacity to operate electric pumps to access the shallow and deep aquifers. Yet, despite this ‘dry-season drought’ situation, over the past four decades, about half of the funds spent on water development has been for embankments for flood control and drainage projects. A further consequence of these embankment projects has been a gradual reduction in the fertility of the soil due to preventing the natural siltation associated with flooding. Farmers living within embankments may be able to multiple crops—rice and other cereals, but they report needing increasing amounts of artificial fertilizers each season. It is not only embankments which affect crop production, but “man-made soil degradation is mainly due to continuous rice monoculture, inadequate soil conservation measures, and unbalanced fertilizer use” (7).
Unless major changes are made in access to water sources for irrigation in the dry season, agricultural production will not increase significantly. The optimistic view is that food production will keep pace with the growing population at least until 2010, when requirements of food-grains will be 31 million metric tonnes (mt), and production will be about 30 million mt. These national averages may conceal household-level variations. For example, assuming a daily per-capita requirement of 454 g of food-grains, an average family of five would need 825 kg annually. With average agricultural land-holding at 0.2 acres and average production at 4 mt per acre, the typical agricultural family can currently produce almost exactly their intake requirements of 0.8 mt (800 kg). However, this leaves no excess for sale and for supporting the population in non-agricultural households in the country.
The National Water Management Plan may contribute to changes in patterns of water extraction that may alleviate some of this problem, but if agricultural production does not increase, what will be the trend for agricultural employment?
The latest figures suggest that, compared to the mid-1990s, the numbers working in agriculture are about 17.2 million males and 5.8 million females and are stagnating or declining. Figures on small or zero land-holdings by farming households are elusive. The 1996 agricultural census indicates that 10.2% of farm households owned no land at all, followed by 79.87% holding between 0.05 and 2.49 acres (0.02-1 ha) (8). This range is not useful as it covers impossibly small areas to reasonably large areas, but includes most farm households. What is clear is that farms in all size categories have declined between the 1983–1984 and the 1996 agricultural census, and the overall average farm size has fallen by one-quarter from 2.26 acres to 1.69 acres (8). Measures of landlessness are complicated, but it appears that, from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, landlessness fell from 56% to 50%; however, micro-level evidence suggests that the “rate might have slowed down in recent times in part as a consequence of the escalation in the pace or rural-urban migration” (7).
These trends suggest that agriculture will not absorb the continuing growth of population into the economically-productive labour force. Thus, the continuing short-term growth in the rural areas of around two million annually will have to find other sources of employment, of which there are a few, or they will be driven into the cities looking for work. The latter is the most likely scenario. By 2025, when rural populations are expected to stop growing, migration to urban areas will then balance the annual natural increase of 1.3 million.
It is worthwhile to point out that the area of cultivable land is not static. It is constantly under threat from the need for land for other uses. Between 1983–1984 and 1997, the area of cultivable crop-land declined by almost 14% while the area for homestead increased by 20%; adjacent ponds and other residential uses increased by another 20%, consuming over 300,000 acres of crop-land. The growth of district-level small cities and towns is now having a noticeable impact: “urbanization offers the greatest substantive threat to total land available for agricultural use” (7).
Another aspect of the ‘water paradox’ is that global trends in climate change pose threats of rising sea-levels which may inundate coastal areas and further reduce available agricultural land by both direct flooding and salination of the aquifer, as is already occurring in Barisal. This prospect is discussed further below.
Finally, in this brief overview, the potential catastrophic impact of the proposed plans to divert many major rivers passing through India will not be discussed. Obviously, if this had occurred, Bangladesh would be deprived of currently-available transboundary surface water. The only positive aspect of such a scheme might be a reduction in numbers of people rendered homeless by the perennial problem of river erosion.
River erosion is believed to swallow nearly 25,000 acres (10,000 ha) each year, leaving some 60,000 people homeless. It is predicted to consume 3,575 sq km by 2025. The Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers alone are said to have contributed to one million rural inhabitants being driven into poverty, and forced to relocate, with the trend in recent decades of moving to the cities in search of work. According to Oxfam, up to 90% of trafficked women and children are victims of river erosion, forced to migrate from their rural homes.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON BANGLADESH
There is a growing recognition that climate change in terms of global warming precipitating rising sea-levels is a genuine harmful phenomenon and is a potential threat to low-lying countries, such as Bangladesh. Surprisingly, there appears to have been a few simulation exercises to try to predict how many people and how much land would be affected by rising sea-levels. While accepting that the rate of climate change will be determined by many factors, and by circumstances already in place, the simulations by University of Middlesex, UK, suggest that South Asia will be massively affected, with up to 55 million people affected by flooding, if there is no change in their present levels of CO2 emissions and atmospheric warming (9). This impact could be reduced to 20 million if CO2 emissions are stabilized at 750 ppm [Pre-industriali-zation levels averaged around 280 ppm], and to 10 million if reduced to 550 ppm.
Two qualifications here are that many of those affected in South Asia will be on the Indian coast, but Bangladesh currently has around 30 million people living in vulnerable coastal areas and islands in the Bay of Bengal. The second qualification is that the time scale is believed to be relatively long in political, if not geological, terms. The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research estimates that sea-levels will rise about 40 cm (15 inches) by 2080.
It is frustratingly difficult to find suitable topographic maps to allow estimates of the current population potentially affected by a certain rise in sea-level. An alternative and more pessimistic prediction by GRID Arendal (Fig. 6) is that sea-level might rise 1.5 metres by 2030, in which case 22,000 sq km (16%) of land area would be affected, equivalent to some 34 million population. This latter estimate is quite dated by now, and new estimates are needed. The SURVAS project (www.survas.mdx.ac.uk) is in the process of updating some of these simulations for the developing world (9).
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A recent study has suggested a catastrophic possibility of sea-levels rising by as much as six metres by 2100 due to more rapid-than-expected melting of the polar ice-caps (10). Such an event would swamp vast areas of Bangladesh and cause extreme hardship and damage to agriculture and other crops, e.g. pond-based shrimp production, even if there was time to warn and relocate coastal residents (See current and projected coast lines of Bangladesh.)
Bangladesh has achieved considerable success in reducing fertility but population momentum will carry its population close to 250 million, unless something very dramatic and unforeseen occurs to bring fertility below replacement level within a decade or two.
Future trends in fertility will depend on further improvements in child survival, which has been stagnant for the past decade, following impressive gains in the 1980s. It will also depend on the changing status of women and girls, and that will require continued inputs in primary and secondary female education linked with developing formal sector employment opportunities in the rural areas, not only in the cities.
A key demographic shift that demands a response is the rapid ageing of the population due largely to the fertility decline. Numbers of elderly people will increase six-fold by mid-century, while numbers in the working ages will less than double. This decrease in the relative size of the working age tax base to the growing demands for healthcare by the elderly group, who are more prone to non-communicable diseases, should be a matter of concern, as Bangladesh evolves health insurance schemes, and more expensive health services, in response to changing needs.
Even simplistic exercises on the burden of diseases can demonstrate how ageing will bring a major shift to non-communicable diseases, with consequent change in demand for more expensive and more sophisticated health services.
A second demographic phenomenon that demands an immediate response is that of rural-urban migration. The above review of the future of rural agriculture suggests that Bangladesh is close to the limits of availability of agricultural land and productivity, at least in the short-term. This is, partly, due to challenging problems of satisfactorily controlling the flow and timing of water for irrigation and, partly, due simply to the very high population densities in the rural areas.
The inevitable consequence of this situation will be urbanization on a scale which risks overwhelming the capacity of the urban authorities to provide housing, water and sanitation, healthcare, education, and other essential services to incoming migrants. A recent study and mapping of slums indicates that they are growing at over 7% per annum, implying a doubling time of less than a decade. This frightening scenario requires an immediate strengthening of urban planning and consideration of how to slow the pace of movement away from rural areas.
How are these challenges consistent with the MDGs?
The following list shows the targets within the MDGs that are potentially affected by population growth. In some cases, the effect is more direct than in others.
MDG 1—Target 1: Halve the proportion of poor people
Fertility is 60% higher among the poorest quintile than among the least poor. However, the poorest group is growing faster, and the child survival is lower.
MDG 1—Target 2: Halve the proportion of hungry people
Food production has kept pace with population growth for the past few decades, but may not continue due to reaching the limits of domestic agricultural production.
MDG 2—Target 3: Ensure that boys and girls can complete primary schooling
The number of children eligible for primary schooling has now stabilized and will not increase further. This should facilitate planning and hopefully implementation.
MDG 4—Target 5: Reduce under-five mortality rates
There is evidence that the fertility decline has reduced numbers of childhood deaths, if not rates. It has reduced selected high-risk pregnancies. Some risks, such as drowning, may have increased due to reduced toddler supervision.
MDG 5—Target 6: Reduce the maternal mortality ratio
The fertility decline has reduced selected high-risk pregnancies and the absolute numbers of maternal deaths considerably. There is potential for further reductions, if early childbearing can be reduced by delaying marriage.
MDG 6—Target 7: Reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
Factors accelerating rural-urban migration contribute to changing family structures where young women and young men are exposed to risks of urban life. These exposures were not found in traditional Bangladeshi life. The poverty-driven search for employment can result in circumstances where high-risk behaviours become acceptable.
MDG 6—Target 8: Reverse the incidence of malaria and TB
Rising population densities can force people to migrate to malaria-endemic rural areas, thus adding to the populations at risk of resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. High-density living and crowding is a risk factor for air-borne diseases, such as TB. Other infectious diseases, e.g. pneumonia and diarrhoeal diseases, are likely to increase due to crowding and unsanitary conditions. Global warming will likely increase the risk for certain vectorborne diseases, e.g. dengue.
MDG 7—Target 10: Access to safe water and basic sanitation
As described, rapid urbanization will create possibly insurmountable pressures on safe water supplies, and the insecure tenure of slum-life, tends to be associated with lack of basic services, as governments are reluctant to provide them even if resources are available.
MDG 7—Target 11: Improve the lives of slum-dwellers
As above, governments historically tend to avoid providing services to slum-dwellers in fear that it will simply pull more rural migrants into the cities.
MDG 8—Target 16: Strategies for decent and productive work for youth
In a slowly-modernizing economy, the rapid growth in numbers of youths seeking employment can exceed the capacity of the private and public sectors to generate jobs.
MDG 8—Target 17: Provide access to affordable, essential drugs
The steady shift towards non-communicable diseases resulting from ageing of the population—a direct result of the fertility decline—will carry major implications for the types and costs of drugs and health services for managing common health problems.
THE WAY FORWARD
Fertility: Evidence suggests that the recent cessation of outreach family-planning services has selectively disadvantaged the poor, among whom fertility has risen. If this is true, the importance of services for different population subgroups need to be better understood. The same pattern may also apply to women in Sylhet, who may be economically better-off, but have limited mobility. Their fertility has been consistently higher than in other parts of the country. Learning how to develop health systems to identify high-fertility families and target these families for additional services will be a challenge to the health system.
Family planning: Bangladesh still has a pattern in the use of short-term family-planning methods which are rather inefficient where most women marry while young and complete their childbearing in their mid-twenties, leaving another 20 years of fertile life to ensure protection from unwanted pregnancies. It is possible that (justifiable) concerns about poor quality of care and fear of surgical procedures underlie much of the hesitation to adopt long-term or permanent contraceptive methods. Much has been said about this, but little improvement has eventuated. What can be done about this?
Rural-urban migration/urbanization: Does the provision of microcredit used for income and employment generation slow the process of rural-urban migration? Many rural people migrate to urban areas with the hope of finding employment. In many cases, this hope remains unfulfilled. What is the nature of employment in the urban informal sector, and how can employment opportunities be increased in urban areas? Is there a role for urban microcredit? Can it be linked to other direct health interventions?
Water and sanitation: What can be done to improve water and sanitation and to minimize water-borne diseases in slum conditions? How much is social mobilization effective in creating groups who can organize, for example, funds to sink functional deep tubewells? Or use community savings to construct safe, hygienic latrines?
There are numerous examples, from neighbouring countries, of group formation to alleviate the pollution of surface water supplies for urban dwellers. This tends to involve blocking raw sewerage outlets into city-lakes, preventing industrial wastes from entering city-lakes and ponds, and exposing and preventing further unauthorized land-grabbing of wetlands in urban zones. In addition to expanding the supply of available water for domestic use, it can reduce monsoon flooding in the vulnerable low-lying slums.
Drug use, violence, and illegal behaviours: The HIV/AIDS epidemic is likely to start among drug users in Bangladesh. They are not uniquely urban, but urban conditions tend to be associated with this and other illegal behaviours. What underlies this tendency? What can be done to minimize it and to redirect young people into more meaningful and productive activities?
The way forward
Targeting family-planning programmes to high-parity families and those at high risk of unintended pregnancies.
Emphasizing longer-term methods for family planning.
Preparing for urbanization—improving urban infrastructure and a skilled workforce.
Prevent and control diseases of urban slums: tuberculosis, enteric infections, pneumonia, and violence.
Prepare for and provide health services for urban areas.
1. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. World population projections to 2150 New York, NY: United Nations, 1998. 41 p. [ST/ESA/Ser.A].
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3. Bairagi R. Effects of sex preference on contraceptive use, abortion and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh. Int Family Plan Perspect. 2001;27:137–43.
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5. Islam N, Angeles G, Mahbub A, Lance P, Nazem NI. Slums of urban Bangladesh: mapping and census. Dhaka: Centre for Urban Studies; 2005. p. 54.
6. Food and Agriculture Organization. Land and Water Division. AQUASTAT Information System on Water and Agriculture Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization, 2006. (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbase/index.stm, accessed on 31 July 2008).
7. Ahsan MN, Ahmed MN. Country paper Bangladesh: impact of land utilization systems on agricultural productivity. Tokyo: Asian Productivity Organization; 2003. pp. 131–42.
8. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Bangladesh 2004 statistical pocketbook. Dhaka: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics; 2006. p. 500.
9. SURVAS (Synthesis and Upscaling of Sea-level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies) Project. Enfield: Middlesex University, 2006. (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbase/index.stm, accessed on 1 May 2006).
10. Overpeck JT, Otto-Bliesner BL, Miller GH, Muhs DR, Alley RB, Kiehl JT. Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science. 2006;311:1747–50.[PubMed]
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